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Overview

This section outlines the required inputs and step-by-step procedures for performing the following “What-If” scenarios:

  • Simulating a Unit Outage
  • Increasing System Demand
  • Adding Line Constraints
  • Scaling VRE Generation Capacity
note

The scope of potential 'what-if' simulations is extensive and is not restricted to the primary examples provided above.

Use and Purpose​

Evaluating "what-if" scenarios is essential for gaining a deeper understanding of market dynamics. By monitoring how a system adjusts to fluctuating variables, analysts can more accurately project price volatility and market trends.

Prerequisites​

Before running a What-If Scenario, ensure you have the following input files prepared:

  • Demand File: A forecasted or historical regional demand profile.
  • Must-Run Generation File: Forecasted or historical capacity factor data for must-dispatch plants.
  • Bid Files: The set of bid profiles to be utilized (Historical, Custom, Typical, or Dynamic).
  • Event File: Defines the specific constraints or variations applied to the base scenario, such as demand scaling, added generation, or transmission line limits.

Read more about Creating Events here.

Step-by-Step Guide​

1

Command Module Initialization​

Navigate to the Command Module, drag the Week Simulation template into the Command Sequence panel and click Edit.

2

Configure Base Settings​

Define the parameters for your simulation:

  • Scenario Settings: Set the Scenario ID, Start Date, Number of Days, and Reporting Type.
  • Simulation Parameters: In the Objects sections, input ALL for Storage, Portfolio, and Group Objects, then click Add.
3

Input​

After adding the template, include the Region Demand, and Must Run Generation files from the previous historical load. These files are generated automatically and follow these naming conventions:

  • Region Demand: DemandHR_[HistoricalLoadFileName].csv
  • VRE Generation: MRHCFac_[HistoricalLoadFileName].csv
note

Use the hourly data (DemandHR_xxxx.csv and MRHCFac_xxxx.csv) if the time interval needed is hourly instead of 5-minute.

4

Set Bids & Outages​

Go to the Bids tab and configure the following:

  • Method: Set to Historical Bid Loading.
  • Options: Check Retain Loaded Bids.
  • Outage Extraction: Set Extract outages longer than (hours) to 1 (equivalent to -ab 1).

Lastly, click "Done Editing"

Note

If multiple scenarios are present, the top-most scenario in the list will be executed first. When new scenarios are added to Apollo, you must click the Refresh button to ensure proper initialization.

Exercise​

Give it a try and do this exercise:

Step 1 of 3

Run and Initialize

Run DefInit.bat with correct database
Run a Historical Load